第7卷 第4期 2011年7月
气候系统变化
235 一套新的30年全球台站逐日降水资料集：质量控制和评估
气候变化影响
253 气候变化与清代华北平原动乱事件关系分析 萧凌波，叶 瑜，魏本勇 259 气候变暖对我国南方水稻可种植区的影响 宋艳玲，刘 波，钟海玲 265 农作物产量对夏季累积高温的气候响应——以南京市为例
温室气体排放
271 中国2050年碳排放情景比较
281 1960—2009年中国民航飞机的CO2逐年排放变化 对策论坛
288 英国新联合政府气候变化政策最新走向及其对中国的影响
294 后京都时期LULUCF潜在核算规则分析
科学知识
301 物种大灭绝 304 人类走出非洲
信息与动态
242 较为温暖的气候并不意味着厄尔尼诺现象会持续
270 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目“过去百年气候增暖及成因”启动 280 早期宇宙中的烟雾是如何消散的？ 287 小冰期是由太阳平静期造成的吗？ 293 一次别开生面的小型研讨会
王绍武，闻新宇 王绍武，闻新宇
刘 硕，李玉娥，高清竹，万运帆，马 欣，秦晓波
安树民，王仲成 李惠民，齐 晔
何吉成
姚雪峰，张 韧，李 倩，葛珊珊 聂肃平，罗 勇，李伟平，吴统文
杨秋明，钱 玮，李 熠，黄世成，谢志清
丁裕国，李佳耘，江志红，余锦华
243 登陆中国热带风暴年际和年代际变化及其与全球大尺度环流的相关 248 极值统计理论的进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用
Contents
Vol. 7 No. 4 July 2011
Changes in Climate System
242 A Gauge-Based Global Daily Precipitation Dataset from 1980 to 2009: Quality Control and Evaluation Nie Suping, Luo Yong, Li Weiping, Wu Tongwen 247 Principal Time Modes of the Interannual and Decadal Variations of Landfall Tropical Storm Number in China and Their Relationships to the Global Large Scale Circulation Study
Impacts of Climate Change
258 Frequency of Revolting Events During 1644-1911 in North China Plain and Its Relationship with Climate Change 1961-2009
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
280 Comparison on China’s Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050
Li Huiming, Qi Ye
287 Estimation of the Aircraft CO2 Emission of China’s Civil Aviation During Forum
293 Latest Climate Change Policies of UK’s Coalition Government and Its Impact on China
Knowledge
301 Mass Extinction 304 Out of Africa
Wang Shaowu, Wen Xinyu Wang Shaowu, Wen Xinyu An Shumin, Wang Zhongcheng
300 Analysis of LULUCF Accounting Rules for Post-Kyoto
Liu Shuo, Li Yu’e, Gao Qingzhu, Wan Yunfan, Ma Xin, Qin Xiaobo
Xiao Lingbo, Ye Yu, Wei Benyong Song Yanling, Liu Bo, Zhong Hailing
Yao Xuefeng, Zhang Ren, Li Qian, Ge Shanshan
264 Impact of Global Warming on the Rice Cultivable Area in Southern China in 270 Climatic Response of Crop Yields to Summer Cumulative High Temperature
Yang Qiuming, Qian Wei, Li Yi, Huang Shicheng, Xie Zhiqing
Ding Yuguo, Li Jiayun, Jiang Zhihong, Yu Jinhua
252 Advances in Extremes Statistics and Their Application to Climate Change
1960-2009 He Jicheng
文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0235-08
一套新的30年全球台站逐日降水资料集：质量控制和评估 聂肃平，罗 勇，李伟平，吴统文
（中国气象局国家气候中心/气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081）
摘 要：对来自全球无线通讯系统（GTS）1980—2009年全球台站逐日降水资料进行质量控制和检验评估。有效地过滤了错误和不可靠的观测记录，构建了一套新的全球台站逐日降水资料集。利用CMAP和GPCP降水产品进行的检验评估表明，新资料集月降水具有良好的频率分布和空间结构一致性。新资料集与CMAP和GPCP降水的全球平均时间相关系数从质量控制前的0.24提高到0.70左右，均方根误差则从12 mm/d减小到1 mm/d。在亚洲，新资料集与CMAP和GPCP具有一致的年际变化特征。在全球不同地区，新资料集的季节变化与CMAP和GPCP较为吻合。
关键词：全球地面天气报；逐日降水；质量控制；检验评估 中图分类号：P426.6 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2011-01-28； 修回日期：2011-03-24
资助项目：国家自然科学基金项目（40905046，41075057)；国家科技支撑项目(2009BAC51B03)；科技部863重点项目（2009AA122000)；中国气象局公益性行业专项（GYHY00706005)
第一作者：聂肃平（1981—），男，高级工程师，主要从事陆面资料同化和观测资料分析研究。E-mail: niesp@cma.gov.cn
A Gauge-Based Global Daily Precipitation Dataset from 1980 to 2009: Quality Control and Evaluation
Nie Suping, Luo Yong, Li Weiping, Wu Tongwen
(Key Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
Abstract: A serial of quality control (QC) procedures were performed on a gauge-based global daily precipitation dataset from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for the period 1998-2009. A new global precipitation dataset was constructed after the control procedures. The new dataset was evaluated using CMAP and GPCP precipitation products. The results show that the frequency and spatial distribution of monthly precipitation in the new dataset well agree with those in CMAP and GPCP. The global mean correlation coefficient between gauge precipitation and CMAP/GPCP precipitation increased from 0.24 before QC to 0.70 after QC, accordingly, and the root mean square error decreased form 12 mm/d to 1 mm/d. The interannual variability of monthly precipitation in the new dataset is consistent with that of the CMAP/GPCP in Asia; and the seasonal variability of precipitation in different regions over the world coincides with those of CMAP/GPCP quite well.
Key words: global surface weather report; daily precipitation; quality control; data evaluation
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0243-05
登陆中国热带风暴年际和年代际变化及其与全球大尺度环流的相关 杨秋明，钱 玮，李 熠，黄世成，谢志清 （江苏省气象科学研究所, 南京 210008）
摘 要：利用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法研究了登陆中国热带风暴频数的非平稳年际和年代际变化主要周期型。对1951—2006年登陆中国的热带风暴频数序列进行分解，分别得到包含有准4年（C01）、6～7年（C02）的年际周期分量和14～16年（C03）的年代际周期分量的时间变化型。这些分量给出了登陆中国热带风暴频数在不同时间尺度上独立的变化特征，其中C01周期分量强度最大，且与ENSO有关。登陆中国的热带风暴频数趋势分量不显著，表明近56年来登陆中国热带风暴无明显增加（减少）趋势。这些周期分量与夏季海平面气压场的相关分析表明，登陆中国热带风暴频数年代际变化与南半球热带和中高纬度环流系统的相互作用密切相关。
关键词：登陆热带风暴；中国；集合经验模态分解（EEMD）；海平面气压场 中图分类号：P444 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2011-02-16； 修回日期：2011-04-05
资助项目：中国气象局基础研究预研基金项目（200726） 第一作者：杨秋明（1963—），男，高级工程师，主要从事中长期天气预报和气候变化研究。E-mail: yqm0305@263.net
Principal Time Modes of the Interannual and Decadal Variations of Landfall Tropical Storm Number in China and Their Relationships to the Global Large Scale Circulation Yang Qiuming, Qian Wei, Li Yi, Huang Shicheng, Xie Zhiqing (Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210008, China)
Abstract: Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method was adopted to study the non-stationary interannual and decadal variations of landfall tropical storm number in China. Time series of the landfall tropical storm number of 56 years (1951-2006) can be decomposed into a series of modes, mainly including the quasi 4 years (C01), 6-7 years (C02) and 14-16 years (C03) oscillation components. Among them, the quasi 4-year oscillation with the largest amplitude is related to ENSO. In brief, the EEMD method instead of traditional and conventional decomposition methods can bring us the isolated characteristics of the temporal variations of the landfall tropical storm number on various time scales, especially on the interannual and decadal timescales. In addition, the long-range trend is not obvious, indicating that there was no increasing
or declining trend in the series of landfall tropical storm number in the past 56 years. Moreover, the correlation analysis also suggests that the interdecadal variations of landfall tropical storm number in China were closely related to the interaction between tropical and extratropical circulation systems in the Southern Hemisphere.
Key words: landfall tropical storm; China; ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD); sea level pressure
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0248-05
极值统计理论的进展及其在气候变化研究中的应用 丁裕国，李佳耘，江志红，余锦华
（南京信息工程大学/江苏省气象灾害国家重点实验室，南京 210044）
摘 要：着重论述极值统计分布在极端天气气候事件和重大工程设计中的重要意义，综述该领域国内外研究进展。例如，基于超门限峰值法（POT）的广义帕累托分布（GPD)和基于单元极大值法（BM）的广义极值分布（GEV）及其参数间的理论关系；采用极值分布模型与多状态一阶Markov链相结合构建降尺度模型模拟局地极端降水事件，推算一定重现期的极端降水量的分位数；探讨极值分布模型分位数估计误差问题，多维极值分布理论及其应用等问题。
关键词：广义帕雷托分布；广义极值分布；二维极值分布；强降水 中图分类号：O211.4 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2010-09-27； 修回日期：2010-12-05 资助项目：国家自然科学基金项目（40875058）；国家科技支撑项目（2007BAC29B0602） 第一作者：丁裕国（1941—），男，教授，研究方向为气候变化诊断与预测、统计气候学等。E-mail: dygnim@126.com
Advances in Extremes Statistics and Their Application to Climate Change Study Ding Yuguo, Li Jiayun, Jiang Zhihong, Yu Jinhua
(National Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Jiangsu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China)
Abstract: New advances in extremes statistics are reviewed in this paper, with emphases on application to extreme weather and climate event research as well as in large-scale engineering design. For example, the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the peak, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) based on the block maxima over threshold (POT) method, and the theoretical relationship of parameters between GPD and GEV; the quantile estimation of extreme precipitation model with given return periods; and the quantile estimation error of extreme value distribution models, and the multivariable extreme value distribution theory, and its application, etc.
Key words: generalized Pareto distribution; generalized extreme value distribution; two dimensional extreme value distribution; heavy precipitation
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0253-06 气候变化与清代华北平原动乱事件关系分析 萧凌波1，叶 瑜2，魏本勇3
（1 北京师范大学历史学院，北京 100875；2 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院，北京 100875；3 中国地震局地质研究所，北京 100029）
摘 要：以《清实录》为历史数据源，以事件频次（县次/年）为代用指标，重建清代（1644—1911年）华北平原动乱事件序列。结果表明：世纪/年代尺度上的冷期或降温阶段的动乱频次高于暖期或升温阶段；干旱事件对动乱的触发作用比洪涝明显，干旱指数与动乱频次显著正相关，19世纪3次大规模农民起义均发生在极端旱灾背景下。上述对应关系在不同时间尺度上的显著程度有所不同，较短时间尺度（年代/年）上的规律在清代早期不明显，从18世纪末开始，随着人-地矛盾的激化逐渐明显，其程度随时间推移而加强。 关键词：清代；华北平原；动乱；气候变化
中图分类号：K249.201/P467 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2010-11-30； 修回日期：2011-01-10
资助项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2010CB950103）；国家自然科学基金项目（40901099，41071127）
第一作者：萧凌波（1982—），博士后，从事历史时期气候变化及其影响研究。E-mail: xlingbo1@163.com
Frequency of Revolting Events During 1644-1911 in North China Plain and Its Relationship with Climate Change
Xiao Lingbo1, Ye Yu2, Wei Benyong3
(1 School of History, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2 School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 3 Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China)
Abstract: Based on the record of revolting events in Actual Annals of Qing Dynasty (a collection of official records), the frequency (amount of counties where revolting events happened every year) of revolting events during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) in North China plain is reconstructed. By comparing revolting events series with temperature and precipitation series, the interaction between climate change and social responses are analyzed. The conclusions are as follows. Revolting events broke out more frequently in colder periods, while less in warmer periods. There were much more revolting events in drought decades than in wet decades, and the three fatal revolting events were all ignited by severe droughts. The impacts of temperature and precipitation change on revolting events should be estimated at different time scales. In the late Qing Dynasty, the correlation between revolting events and climate change became more and more significant, along with the contradiction between population and land area becoming increasingly intense.
Key words: Qing Dynasty; North China Plain; revolting event; climate change
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0259-06 气候变暖对我国南方水稻可种植区的影响 宋艳玲，刘 波，钟海玲
（中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081） 摘 要：利用我国南方稻区214站1961—2009年逐日气象资料，研究气候变化对南方水稻可种植区的影响。研究结果显示：气候变暖使南方稻区活动积温（日平均气温≥10℃）明显增加，49年增加了324.4℃·d。同时水稻生长季长度也明显延长，49年延长了17.9 d。双季稻可种植区北界明显北移，三季稻可种植区北界略有北移，20世纪60—80年代，双季稻可种植区仅限于长江以南地区，但21世纪初以来的10年双季稻可种植区北界移到长江以北，即向北推移近300 km，从而使新增双季稻可种植区扩展到四川东北部、贵州东部、重庆、湖北大部、安徽中部以及江苏南部。
关键词：气候变暖；水稻；可种植区；中国南方 中图分类号：P467/S511 文献标识码：A 收稿日期：2011-03-23； 修回日期：2011-04-14
资助项目：国家科技支撑计划课题（2007BAC29B05）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106021）
第一作者：宋艳玲（1974—），女，副研究员，从事气候变化对农业影响研究。E-mail: songyl@cma.gov.cn
Impact of Global Warming on the Rice Cultivable Area in Southern China in 1961-2009 Song Yanling, Liu Bo, Zhong Hailing
(National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)
Abstract: Using the daily weather data from 214 stations over southern China rice growing area during 1961-2009, impact of global warming on the rice cultivable area in southern China was studied. The results show that the accumulated temperature in rice-growing areas across southern China obviously increased in the period of 1961-2009, it increased up to 5980.8℃·d in 2001-2009, 268.0 ℃·d higher than that in the 1960s. Correspondingly, the rice growing season has clearly prolonged up to 231.4 d, 16.5 d longer than that in the 1960s. And the growing boundary for double-cropping rice apparently shifted northwards, and one for triple-cropping rice slightly shifted northwards. From the 1960s to 1980s, the double-cropping rice grew only in the areas south of the Yangtze River. However in the recent 10 years, the cultivable area for double-cropping rice has extended even north of the Yangtze River, i.e., the northern boundaries have advanced northwards approximately 300 km, extending to northeastern Sichuan, eastern Guizhou, Chongqing, most Hubei, central Anhui, as well as southern Jiangsu. Key words: global warming; rice; cultivable area; southern China
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0265-06
农作物产量对夏季累积高温的气候响应——以南京市为例 姚雪峰，张 韧，李 倩，葛珊珊
（解放军理工大学气象学院，南京 211101） 摘 要：利用南京站1949—2008年逐日气温、逐月降水距平百分率资料及南京市统计年鉴数据，分析农作物产量对夏季累积高温的气候响应特征。结果表明：1949年以来南京市夏季累积高温呈波动上升趋势；最近60年（1949—2008年）和最近30年（1979—2008年）夏季累积高温的线性增长率分别为0.35℃/a和2.88℃/a；夏季累积高温与夏、秋粮产量均存在显著的负相关，相关系数分别为-0.66和-0.62，油料作物对夏季累积高温的变化也有一定的响应，但不如前两者显著，棉花产量对夏季累积高温变化不敏感。 关键词：累积高温；气候影响；降水；南京市；农作物 中图分类号：S162.5 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2010-11-18； 修回日期：2011-01-04 资助项目：国家自然科学基金项目（41075045） 第一作者：姚雪峰（1986—），女，硕士研究生，主要从事气候变化风险评估研究。E-mail: moonburn1986@hotmail.com
Climatic Response of Crop Yields to Summer Cumulative High Temperature Yao Xuefeng, Zhang Ren, Li Qian, Ge Shanshan
(The Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China) Abstract: Based on the daily observational temperature data, monthly precipitation anomalies and statistical yearbook data in Nanjing, the climatic response of crop yields to summer cumulative high temperature was analyzed. The results show that summer cumulative high temperature in Nanjing has presented an increasing trend since 1949. The linear growth rate of summer cumulative high temperature over the last 30 years is almost 8 times that over the last 60 years (2.88℃ vs. 0.35℃ per year). Summer cumulative high temperature has significant negative correlations with summer and autumn grain yields, showing a correlation coefficient of -0.66 and -0.62, respectively. Although there is also certain negative correlation between summer cumulative high temperature and the yields of oil-bearing crops, the correlation coefficient is not as significant as the former two. Crop yields show no response to summer cumulatire high temperature. Key words: cumulative high temperature; climate impact; precipitation; Nanjing City; crop
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0271-10 中国2050年碳排放情景比较 李惠民，齐 晔
（清华大学公共管理学院，北京 100084）
摘 要：从方法论、情景设置、宏观参数、能源消费量、能源消费结构、碳排放量、碳排放强度等几个方面，对国内外有代表性的6个中国碳排放情景研究进行了比较。在维持现有政策框架的基准情景下，尽管中国未来的能源结构持续优化，碳排放强度持续下降，但中国2050年的二氧化碳排放量将显著增长，排放量为119亿～162亿t。通过一定的低碳发展政策，在比较情景下，能源结构的优化和碳排放强度的下降更加明显，2050年碳排放量显著下降，排放量为43亿～95亿t。
关键词：碳排放；气候变化；情景研究；比较
中图分类号：P467/X24 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2011-03-15； 修回日期：2011-04-10
资助项目：清华大学自主科研计划“低碳经济研究院特别项目”；科技部科技支撑计划“应对全球环境变化综合支撑技术研究”（2007BAC03A12） 第一作者：李惠民（1981—），男，博士后，从事气候变化政策研究。E-mail: liadan80@163.com
Comparison on China’s Carbon Emission Scenarios in 2050 Li Huimin, Qi Ye
(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)
Abstract: Several representative studies on China’s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 were compared in some aspects, such as methodology, scenario settings, macro parameters, energy consumption, energy consumption structure, carbon emission and carbon intensity. Under the
baseline scenario of present policy framework, future energy structure will be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually, but China’s carbon emission in 2050 still has a significant increase, and the carbon emission will reach 11.9-16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening low carbon policy, under comparative scenarios, the optimization of energy structure and the decline of carbon emission intensity will be more obvious; and the carbon emission in 2050 will decrease significantly, China’s carbon emission will be 4.3-9.5 Gt CO2 in 2050.
Key words: carbon emission; climate change; emission scenario; comparison
参考文献
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0281-07
1960—2009年中国民航飞机的CO2逐年排放变化 何吉成
（交通运输部规划研究院环境资源所，北京 100028）
摘 要：基于中国民航部门逐年统计数据，计算了1960—2009年中国民航飞机的CO2逐年排放量，分析了中国民航飞机CO2排放强度及其变化特点。结果表明：中国民航飞机CO2总排放量由1960年的12.0万t增至2009年的4144万t；CO2排放强度呈明显的降低趋势，由1960年的2.9 kg/换算吨公里降至2009年的0.96 kg/换算吨公里，年均降低0.04 kg/换算吨公里。中国民航飞机的CO2排放量占整个交通运输仓储和邮政行业CO2排放量的比例较低，仅占6.6%，占全国化石燃料燃烧CO2排放量的比例也很小，平均只有0.25%。 关键词：中国民航；飞机能耗； CO2排放量
中图分类号：X738/X24 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2011-01-17； 修回日期：2011-03-28
资助项目：中国气象局2011年气候变化专项（CCSF2011-14） 第一作者：何吉成（1976—），男，副研究员，从事交通运输行业能源、环境、温室气体和大气污染物排放等方面的研究。E-mail: jichenghe@gmail.com
Estimation of the Aircraft CO2 Emission of China’s Civil Aviation During 1960-2009 He Jicheng
(Division of Environment and Resources Research, Transport Planning and Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100028, China)
Abstract: Based on the annual production data collected by Chinese Civil Aviation Statistic Center, the yearly CO2 emission of aircrafts during 1960-2009 was calculated, and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the total CO2 emission of aircrafts in China increased from 120 kt in 1960 to 41.44 Mt in 2009. The emission intensity of CO2 decreased from 2.9 kg/(converted t·km) in 1960 to 0.96 kg/(converted t·km) in 2009 at an average rate of 0.04 kg/(converted t·km) per year. The average proportion of the CO2 emission of aircrafts to the total CO2 emission from the sector of transportation, storage and post was 6.6% in the period of 1980-2005, and to the total emission from fossil fuel combustion was 0.25% in the period of 1971-2008.
Key words: China Civil Aviation; energy consumption of aircraft; CO2 emission
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0288-06
英国新联合政府气候变化政策最新走向及其对中国的影响 安树民1，王仲成2,3
（1 中国人民大学环境学院，北京 100872；2 中国科学院生态环境研究中心，北京 100085；3 中国科学技术交流中心，北京 100045 ）
摘要：2010年5月英国保守党和自由民主党组成联合政府执政，其气候变化政策也相应发生了一些变化。根据7月27日英国政府公布的首份《年度能源报告》、卡梅伦首相的文章及能源与气候变化大臣休恩的演讲，可粗线条勾勒出其气候变化政策的一些基本走向。在国际框架上，新政府把积极推动国际减排，维护英国低碳技术的国际商业利益作为其未来施政的一个重要方向，更加坚持发展中国家承担减排任务及“三可”机制。在英国本土，气候变化的重点则由原来的“减排”转而强调“适应”。英国新政府十分重视与中国在低碳领域的合作。对于中国而言，机遇与挑战并存，需要尽快尽早制定国家级的低碳发展战略。 关键词：英国；《年度能源报告》；低碳技术；资金；适应性
收稿日期：2010-10-14； 修回日期：2011-01-25
资助项目：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“我国碳金融理论体系的构建与实务创新”（10YJCZH001）；中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）项目“环境金融理论的构建与中国环境金融的实践”（08XNA007） 第一作者：安树民（1972—），讲师，从事环境经济、碳金融、创新政策等研究。E-mail: anshm@ruc.edu.cn
Latest Climate Change Policies of UK’s Coalition Government and Its Impact on China An Shumin1, Wang Zhongcheng2, 3
(1 School of Environment and Nature Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;2 Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China;3 Chinese Science and Technology Exchange Center, Beijing 100045, China)
Abstract: In May 2010, the Coalition Government, by the Conservative Party and Liberal Democrat Party, came into power, and some changes were also made on the climate change policies accordingly. This paper is trying to find some emphases and changes of UK’s climate change policies, based on the Annual Energy Statement announced by the Coalition Government on July 27, 2010, the article published by Prime Minister David Cameron, and the speech delivered by Energy and Climate Change Minister Chris Huhne. The new government promotes international emission reduction and maintains the international business interests of UK’s low-carbon technologies. The new government requires major developing countries to commit to the mitigation actions which are measureable, reportable and verifiable. The UK’s government shifts the focus of domestic climate change policy from emission reduction to adaptation. The new British government attaches great importance to China in the low carbon technology cooperation. Facing new opportunities as well as challenges, China needs to develop a low-carbon development strategy at national level as soon as possible.
Key words: the United Kingdom; Annual Energy Statement; low-carbon technology; fund; adaptation
参考文献
[1]Department of Energy & Climate Change. Annual energy statement [R/OL]. 2010 [2010-11-01]. http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/What%20we%20do/UK%20energy%20supply/237-annual-energy-statement-2010.pdf
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0294-07 后京都时期LULUCF潜在核算规则分析
刘 硕，李玉娥，高清竹，万运帆，马 欣，秦晓波
（中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室，北京 100081）
摘 要：《京都议定书》附件一缔约方国家通过土地利用、土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）活动产生的碳汇减轻自身减排压力，为国内工业能源部门碳排放提供空间。但LULUCF包括的核算活动类型和具体方法一直是各方争论的焦点，其中木质林产品、不可抗力等自然干扰、参考水平阈值的设置以及总-净与净-净核算方式的选择这几方面核算漏洞很多，矛盾尤为突出。为防止发达国家过分依赖LULUCF产生的碳汇减轻减排压力，搜集了欧盟27国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯等发达国家提交的LULUCF数据，分析了核算漏洞对LULUCF核算结果可能产生的影响。结果表明：木质林产品活动的核算方法不确定性较多；剔除自然干扰等不可抗力后，LULUCF活动碳汇至少增加30%；参考水平阈值适于设置在较高碳汇水平；净-净核算方式更适用于后京都时代LULUCF核算规则。 关键词：后京都时代；LULUCF；核算规则
中图分类号：S7/X24 文献标识码：A
收稿日期：2010-11-22； 修回日期：2011-01-19
资助项目：国家“973”气候专项关于“土地利用、土地利用变化和林业”谈判问题研究（2010CB955702）；中国陆地生态系统碳氮水通量的时空格局及其区域响应研究（2010CB833504）
第一作者：刘硕（1982—），女，助理研究员，主要从事气候变化与农田草地等领域的研究。通信作者：万运帆，E-mail: wanyunfan@ami.ac.cn
Analysis of LULUCF Accounting Rules for Post-Kyoto
Liu Shuo, Li Yu’e, Gao Qingzhu, Wan Yunfan, Ma Xin, Qin Xiaobo
(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Key Opening Laboratory of Agricultural Environment and Climate Change of Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China)
Abstract: Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) could allow Annex I parties in the Kyoto Protocol to release their carbon emission reduction pressure, comparably expanding more emission space for their domestic industry and energy field. LULUCF activity types and specific accounting methods were always argued among different parties, where several accounting loopholes conflicted fiercely, particularly including harvest wood product, force majeure, reference level threshold value and gross-net and net-net accounting methods selection. In order to avoid developed countries taking use of the accounting loopholes of LULUCF to decrease their
emission reduction pressure, the LULUCF data submitted by main developed counties in Annex I including EU27, Canada, Japan, Russia and so on, were collected in this paper. According to the analysis of these data, the loopholes might influence the accounting results of LULUCF. The results show that the uncertainty of harvest wood product was excessive; carbon sink produced by LULUCF activities would increase averagely 30% at least without force majeure; reference level threshold value of carbon sink should be set at a higher level; net-net accounting method might be more suitable for LULUCF in post-Kyoto.
Key words: post-Kyoto; LULUCF; accounting methods
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0301-03 物种大灭绝 Mass Extinction
王绍武1,2，闻新宇1
（1 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系，北京 100871；2 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081）
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文章编号：1673-1719 (2011) 04-0304-03 人类走出非洲 Out of Africa
王绍武1,2，闻新宇1
（1 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系，北京 100871；2 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081）
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